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很多人不明白股市為何會大升,但原因不是很清楚明白嗎?(我不是股神)

最近兩日很多人不明白為何大市會大升。但原因不是很清楚明白嗎?
一)PMI V型反彈:周日(3月31日)國家統計局公布3月中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI),最新數值50.5%創六個月新高,是自去年11月後,首度重回50%榮枯線上,遠高於許多經濟分析師的預期。雖有季節性因素影響,如春節後企業開工,但亦象徵經濟總體由「收縮」回復「擴張」的狀態。
二)中國政府減稅:4月1日起,空前力度的增值稅稅率下調將正式執行。所有行業稅負只減不增、制造業減稅規模最大:
1)增值稅稅率16%降為13%:主要涉及制造業等行業;
2)增值稅稅率10%降為9%:主要涉及交通運輸業、郵政業、建築業、房地產業、基礎電信服務和農產品等貨物;
3)保持6%一檔稅率不變:主要涉及現代服務業、金融業、生活服務業和增值電信服務等。
三)聯儲局放鴒:聯儲局今年1月議息後決定維持利率不變,3月會議後發布的利率點陣圖(dot-plot)更顯示2019年不會加息。鮑威爾在記者會宣布,由5月開始,縮表計劃即減持國債(Treasury securities)規模從目前每月300億降至150億美元,到9月底完全停止縮表。
四)中國在貿易談判中讓步。3月28日,根據《路透社》消息,美國官員表示,中方在中美貿易談判中,於強迫技術轉移等多個領域提出空前建議(unprecedented proposals),又指雙方在協議詳細內容上取得進展。他指現時的文本較一個月前相比,在所有領域都取得進展,縱使仍未達美方所期望。他又指,在核心問題取得進展下,貿易談判將會持續,可能會持續至5月及6月,亦可能於4月便有協議。雙方仍在知識產權及如何執行協議上有分歧,不過,官員對協議的達感到樂觀。
那麼,邏輯上這不是很怪嗎?經濟差,股市可以升,也可以跌。確實如此,但這也不重要,因為投資者賭的不是大市的升跌。投資者應該做的,是見到好公司變得估值合理的時候,就開始買入,然後靜待公司成長。這是最好的做法。
根據彭博,現時恒指的市盈率是11.58。之前最高曾經升到17.65,最低跌到7.5左右。現在恒指雖然從低位升了差不多4000點,但估值仍然是合理。正如先前本人的分享,我仍然看好內航股、家電股和職業教育股。現在的心水是南航(1055)、海信家電(921)和新華教育(2779)。至於我一直支持的創維(751),估值雖然仍然很便宜,但最近公佈的業績實在令人失望,所以也剔出我的心水名單了。
作者:我不是股神