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由零開始學習股票-六種股票類型(下)

文章難度:★★☆☆☆ (小編:雖然是熊市,但文中「周期型」股票的特徵,大家一定要知道,可以輸少很多錢。) 彼得·林奇(Peter Lynch)曾經以13年時間,為其管理的基金做到複合年均報酬率29%,令基金績效名列第一而成為世界上最成功的基金。 Lynch認為,一旦確定一家公司作為潛在投資對象後,就要確定這家公司屬於六種公司基本類型中的哪一種類型:緩慢增長型、穩定增長型、快速增長型、周期型、困境反轉型以及隱蔽資產型。 上次小編與讀者分享了頭三種,今次就分享其餘四種,以及相應的策略: 4. 周期型:不熟不做 周期性公司是指那些銷售收入和盈利以一種並非完全可以準確預測卻相當有規律的方式不斷上漲和下跌的公司。在增長型行業中,公司業務一直在不斷擴張,而在周期型公司中,公司發展過程則是擴張、收縮、再擴張、再收縮,如此不斷循環往復。汽車和航空公司、輪胎公司、鋼鐵公司以及化學公司都是周期型公司。(小編按:在港股中,吉利汽車和中海油等就是例子) 當經濟走出衰退進入繁榮階段時,周期型公司股價的上漲要比穩定增長型公司快得多,與此相反,經濟開始衰退時,周期型公司股東的錢包也會嚴重縮水。如果投資者在錯誤的周期階段購買了周期型公司的股票,會很快虧損一半還要多,並且還要等上好幾年時間才會再次看到業務重新繁榮。 周期型公司股票是所有股票類型中最容易被誤解的股票,因為主要的周期型公司都是些大型的著名公司,投資者會很自然地將其與那些值得信賴的穩定增長型公司混為一談。Lynch認為,時機選擇是投資周期型公司股票的關鍵,投資者必須能夠發現公司業務衰退或者繁榮的早期跡象。如果投資者在與鋼鐵、汽車、航空等有關的行業中工作,那麽投資者已經具備了投資周期型公司股票的特殊優勢,這種優勢尤其是在周期型公司股票的投資中更為重要。 5. 困境反轉型:需要承受波幅 困境反轉型公司是那種已經受到嚴重打擊而一蹶不振並且幾乎要按照法律規定申請破產保護的公司。它們既不屬於緩慢增長型公司,也不是業務將會復蘇的周期型公司,它們有著可能導致公司滅亡的致命傷。 困境反轉型公司一旦走出困境(例如重組、獲得融資等),股價往往能夠非常迅速地收復失地,這已經為許多此類公司的情況所證明。投資困境反轉型公司股票的最大好處在於在所有類型的股票中,這類股票的上漲和下跌與整個股票市場漲跌的關聯程度最小。盡管並非所有的困境反轉型公司股票都能夠困境反轉,但偶然幾次的成功使得投資這類公司的股票在整體上投資回報非常豐厚。 6. 隱蔽資產型:需要研究和耐性 隱蔽資產型公司是指在任何一家上市公司中,某一投資者注意到了這家公司所擁有的而大多數大眾投資者卻沒有注意到的價值非同一般的資產的那些公司。投資隱蔽資產型公司股票的當地人可以利用當地優勢能夠獲得最大的投資回報。 在Lynch看來,最典型的隱蔽資產型公司是佩恩中央鐵路公司。這家公司什麽類型的隱蔽資產都有:抵扣所得稅的巨額虧損、現金、弗羅里達州大量的土地、其他地方的土地、西弗吉尼亞的煤礦、曼哈頓的航空權。任何一個與該公司打過交道的人都可能會發現它的股票非常值得購買,事實上這只股票後來上漲了8倍。 投資隱蔽資產型公司的機會雖然隨處可見,但須對擁有隱蔽資產的公司有著真實的了解,一旦清楚了解了公司隱蔽資產的真正價值,所需要做的只是耐心等待。