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慎防心理偏差導致投資失誤-可得性偏差

突然心血來潮,想講講投資者心理。
新手投資者通常也會跌入一個名為availability bias (中譯可得性偏差)的思維偏差,其中一個特徵是對於接收資訊不理性,純粹用自己記憶或者自己認知作判斷,同時偏向認為近期資訊十分之重要(overreact on recent market event) 。這是一種人類本能,但投資上就有可能幫倒忙了,小弟有時也身受其害。
舉個例子,2016年11月9日是恆指慘淡的一日(或是淡友開心的一日),當日Donald Trump 宣布做了總統(意料之外),恒指最多跌過1000點,但收市只是跌了600點。如果當日day low的時後把股票放掉,相信也損手不少。但如果zoom out 少少睇,11月7日至11日,最後都只跌了100點,證明了許多投資者即市過於擔心,錯估形勢(誤以為美國選了另一個總統會好影響世界經濟),以至出現人踩人情況。其實影響不是想像般嚴重,翌日開市已經收復大部分失地。

也許這不是一個最好的例子,但想帶出的是如果能夠遠離availability bias , 會減少投資損失。
遠離availability bias 有許多方法,其中兩個個人認為有用的方法:1.避免交易日常常內refresh 報價機, 常留意報價機好易會比價格波動影響情緒,有時亦會令自己忘卻之前買入/賣出股票的原因。寧願每日收市後再花多時間檢討比較好。2.長遠develop 一套比較客觀的選股方法,有客觀數據支持,人就坐得淡定,比較少被情緒主導。