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這次升市背後的理由:「玩弄資產價格的央行們」

這次升市的背後,可以看到一個關鍵詞:放水
在一年前,全世界都在收水,中國在經歷一個deleverage的過程;歐洲停止QE時代;美國加息開始縮表。
在過去一個月我們好明顯見到政策變化:
1. 中國在2019年第一個星期宣布全面降準。
「1月4日晚,中國央行宣布2019年1月再次降準,下調金融機構存款準備金率1個百分點。 這是央行2019年首次全面降準,釋放約1.5萬億元資金,比起2018年的降準大幅加碼。分析員認為,降準肯定能夠緩解房地產企業的資金壓力,另外對於購房者按揭來說也能夠相對獲得平穩的信貸價格。」
2. 幾天前,歐央行德拉吉指,數據低迷仍需大量寬鬆,不排除重啓QE。
「1月28日,德拉吉重申上周四議息決策後記者會的言論,認為“歐元區經濟前景所面臨的風險正發展成為偏下行”,並暗示“如果形勢變得非常糟糕”,歐洲央行不排除重啟新一輪QE量寬買債政策。」
3. 昨日美聯儲鮑威爾稱加息可能性下降,承諾靈活調整縮表,不排除重啟QE。
「美聯儲新年首個FOMC會議暫不加息,聯邦基金利率目標區間為2.25%-2.5%不變。美聯儲發出了暫停加息的最強信號,聲明承諾對進一步加息有耐心,承認通脹預期下降,將經濟表現從“強勁”下調至“穩固”。未來美聯儲繼續轉鴿的方面包括對縮表進程做出實質性的調整等。另外,房地產市場的放緩等原因使得美國的通脹壓力放緩,美聯儲繼續轉鴿為國內更寬松的貨幣政策創造了更大空間。不排除重啟QE。」
這幾個大央行的轉向不可能是朝三暮四的事,這個趨勢很可能會維持一段時間。
向來資產價錢都只是央行的金錢遊戲,只要央行肯繼續印錢,資產價格很難大跌。
文:Econ達人
編:Nowwwhat Editorial