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大摩首席策略師建議:「投資者目前應立即撤出股市!」

1月29日,摩根士丹利首席股票策略師邁克.威爾遜(Mike Wilson)告訴投資者,即使市場仍有一些上行潛力,他們也需要立即撤出股市。
周一,威爾遜形容去年平安夜以來的股市反彈如同坐上狂牛背上,指目前已坐在牛背8秒鐘,已接近要跳下來的時候,並警告牛有時候是危險的動物。他敦促他的客戶“下馬”,因為自2018年末以來的市場反彈開始顯得不穩定。
這位策略師說,自去年12月股市暴跌以來,市場的走勢一直是“短線震蕩”,拋售信號不像標準普爾500指數在2900點上方交易時那麽明顯,但現在是時候尋找更好的時機了。
自12月24日股市觸底以來(這是有記錄以來聖誕夜股市跌幅最大的一天),各大股指均出現反彈,其中納斯達克綜合指數領漲,跌幅達1.11%,今年以來累計漲幅超過6%。
不過,Wilson不認為這種增長勢頭會持續下去,因為他認為兩位數的利潤增長是由較低的稅率和較低的預期推動的,這為未來更嚴格的比較奠定了基礎。
事實上,他預計2019年前三個季度的每股收益(EPS)將只會按年增長1.3%至3.5%。

FactSet的數據顯示,截至目前,第四季度每股收益增長10.9%,營收增長6.1%。本周,100多家標準普爾500指數成份股公司將公布季度業績,其中包括13家藍籌股和大型股亞馬遜公司以及蘋果公司。
與此同時,他警告稱,多年來一直為股市提供積極背景的美國經濟,可能永遠無法從政府部分關門的局面中完全復蘇。政府關門與庫存上升同時發生。

「我們懷疑,政府重啟三周後,經濟活動是否會全面復蘇。即使臨時重新開放成為永久性的,有些事情可能也無法“彌補”。」
據美國國會預算辦公室的數據,為期五周的關閉令美國經濟損失了約110億美元,並使第四季度國內生產總值(gdp)減少了0.1個百分點。
美銀美林的經濟學家最近警告說,國際貿易形勢持續的緊張關系將損害美國經濟,並將美國2019年的GDP增長預期從2.7%下調至2.5%。
威爾遜認為,在這個關鍵時刻,一個改變遊戲規則的因素是,如果美聯儲決定放棄其強硬立場,放棄使其資產負債表正常化的努力。但這位策略師認為,美聯儲不太可能完全投降,相反,美聯儲將把退出緊縮政策的任何舉動描述為“逐步退出”。
他表示:“縮減仍在收緊,量化縮減的時間越長,資產負債表最終規模的目標越低,對股市的正面影響就越小。”
美聯儲將於周二開始為期兩天的會議,預計聯邦公開市場委員會將維持利率不變。不過,策略師預計美聯儲將在聲明中以“耐心”取代“循序漸進”,而美聯儲主席鮑威爾則向市場保證,鮑威爾團隊將保持警惕和靈活性。
編:Nowwwhat Editorial