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貿易談判的3個可能結局:基本/突破/崩潰
本星期(1月30至31日),中國副總理劉鶴率領約30人代表團到華盛頓,與美國貿易代表萊特希澤(Robert Lighthizer)牽頭的美方代表進行磋商。
會怎發展?彭博社綜合了3種可能出現的情境。

基本情況
即使中美本周達成協議,也可能需要時間向兩位總統報告,然後讓特朗普和習近平決定他們是否滿意。不要指望劉鶴或Lighthize會對那些參加會談的記者說些什麼。
模糊的官方聲明很可能是代表取得重大進展。繼北京上次會議後,雙方發表了單獨的聲明。
目前,談判的大綱很清楚:中國可能會同意購買更多的美國商品,北京可能會承諾停止竊取知識產權,雙方要製定一個可行的執法系統來監察。
如果官員表示他們計劃舉行另一輪談判,那將表明雙方仍然認為可以在3月1日之前達成協議。另一種可能的結果將是延長關稅休戰。
Econ達人:最大的可能性。但金融市場也對此有一定反映。如果要另一輪談判,就要等到農曆新年後。

突破情況
在最好的情況下,中國人提出了一項比預期更突破的經濟改革提議。如果這樣,市場將會反彈,擺脫數月對全球貿易戰的焦慮。
Econ達人:問題是,中國需要一個改變遊戲規則的提議,表明放鬆控制和放棄中國製造2025。我覺得很難會出現。

崩潰情況
如果談判結束時沒有任何形式的陳述,大家要小心。特朗普推文可能很快會出現,對缺乏進展感到沮喪。
Econ達人:談判或陷入長期擱置境地,股市會大跌。應該沒有人會開心,希望不會發生。
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文:Econ達人
Source: Bloomberg
圖:網路圖片