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踢爆傳奇背後的數字:前UPS員工年薪11萬元,以5億元退休

相信大家都在不同的地方聽過這故事,故事是來自一個叫Tony Robbins的演說家:
「一名前UPS員工,Theodore Johnson,從 1924 年就開始在 UPS (聯合包裹,世界最大的快遞承運商和包裹運送公司)。一生中,年薪從未超過14,000 美元(大約11萬港元),但他用存下的錢買了 UPS 的股票,經過數十年精心管理,Johnson最終以7100萬美元,超過5億港元在1952年退休。」
故事是真的嗎?
我找到了1991年的紐約時報:
“Theodore R. Johnson never made more than $14,000 a year, but he invested wisely -- so wisely that he made $70 million. Now he is donating $36 million of his fortune for education.”
“Mr. Johnson, who was reared in a middle-class family, worked his way up at U.P.S. to vice president for industrial relations by the time he retired in 1952. His annual salary was $14,000 then, but he had bought as much of the company's stock as he could and had about $700,000 when he retired.”
https://www.nytimes.com/1991/10/15/us/retiree-donates-fortune-to-education.html
重點:
的確有這個人,但他不是一個普通的UPS員工,他是UPS的副總裁。
他退休時(1952年)靠UPS的股票只有70萬美元。7千萬是文章發佈(1991年)的數字,當時他應該90歲左右了。
中間沒有算到通賬,比如說,1980年前後,美國通賬達10%以上。1950年的100元,在現在值超過1000元。
由1952年到1991年,投資由70萬變成7千萬,升值了100倍。巧合地,投資SP500指數由1950年到1990年,剛好也是100倍(圖二,假設將所有股息再投資)
圖一:1950年的100元,在現在值超過1000元。

圖二,S&P指數回報,假設將所有股息再投資。1950年到1990年,剛好也是100倍

好了,我們可以怎樣分析呢?
Mr. Johnson 活在一個高通漲、高增長的年代。
在一個高通漲的年代,投資很重要。
Mr. Johnson 的投資只是在大市同步。
投資的第一步,是要對任何資訊都有獨立思考能力。
來自: 財研社
Reference: NY Times
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