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美聯儲停加息?A股會升25%? 黑石集團2019年的「十大驚喜」
過去34年中每年1月,黑石集團副董事長( 前摩根士丹利首席經濟學家)拜倫·維恩都會發佈年度「十大驚喜(Ten Surprises)」名單,今年也繼續這傳統。
拜倫將「驚喜/意外(Surprises)」定義為普通投資者只會覺得可能性低於30%,但Byron認為可能性超過50%的事件。

疲弱的世界經濟令美聯儲在年內停止加息。通貨膨脹依然很低,10年期國債收益率維持在3.5%以下。收益率曲線保持正值。
標普500指數全年上漲15%。部分原因是美聯儲不再加息及股市在2018下跌後估值吸引。
美國GDP 、資本支出和房地產市場在2019年僅略有增長。然而,2021年之前的經濟衰退似乎不太可能。
隨著美國和其他地區的股票市場走強,黃金跌至1,000美元。
中國上証會上漲25%。與發達市場和歷史水平相比,新興市場現時估值具有吸引力。
英國沒有脫歐協議,要有第二次全民公決舉行。
美元保持穩定。由於對經濟的擔憂,美聯儲停止萎縮其資產負債表。
「通俄門」調查結果會對最接近特朗普的人員提出起訴,但證據並不支持對特朗普本人的任何直接行動。
以民主黨佔多數的國會在貿易政策方面更進取。在保護「患者保護與平價醫療法案」(Affordable Care Act)和移民政策的重要部分方面取得了進展。將宣布將於2020年實施的基建計劃。
成長股繼續領導美國股市。科技股和生物科技股因盈利持續強勁而表現良好。由於經濟放緩,能源相關業務以外的價值股會表現差。
黑石集團(The Blackstone Group)於1985年成立,是全球最大的另類投資管理機構。
source:
https://www.blackstone.com/media/press-releases/article/byron-wien-announces-ten-surprises-for-2019