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摩根大通2019年看好什麼?看淡什麼?
今年10月,摩根大通將中國股票評級從「增持」下調至「中性」,並預測貿易戰明年全面爆發。
在最近的2019年展望中,摩根大通對中國股票評級繼續是「中性」。

在很短期內或有買入機會:目前估值低,對貿易戰短暫停火的希望,基礎設施投資引起憧景。
2019展望圍繞四個關鍵驅動因素:美中貿易談判前景; 中國的經濟和政策前景; 企業盈利預測趨勢; 和市場信心。
由於對美中貿易談判結果持謹慎態度,對未來3-6個月的中國股票採取謹慎態度。
這次的政策刺激是不同的: 更少在增長性的財政政策和投資,而更多在減稅。
JPM建議增持的行業
房地產:隨著銷售和建築活動逐漸放緩,我們認為進一步的政策緊縮風險微乎其微
醫療保健:我們認為生物製劑和生物仿製藥等創新療法的市場處於增長的早期階段,並且更加不受價格下降的影響。
消費必需品: 我們相信三種趨勢將會推動消費增長:i)優質化;ii)新零售; iii)大數據和小額貸款
工業:自7月以來的政策支持,包括地方政府債券發行加速和貨幣政策調整,導致4季度基礎設施投資的複蘇。
JPM建議減持的行業
能源 : 下調至減持。隨著對全球經濟健康狀況的擔憂加劇,今年秋季油價暴跌,將影響能源行業發展。
互聯網: 1)宏觀和消費前景惡化 2)由於銷售預測疲軟導致廣告預算削減; 3)私人或新上市公司的競爭日益激烈; 4)某些行業的監管變化(教育,在線借貸,遊戲和電子商務); 5)人民幣外匯匯率前景疲弱; 6)為長線增長而增加的投資。
JPM建議中性的行業
非必需消費品 - 從減持升級至中性。
綜合金融企業 - 從減持升級到中性。 預計與股票質押業務相關的政策刺激措施將支撐行業,目前估值處於低谷。
銀行 - 對宏觀經濟增長的擔憂日益增加,主要是由於貿易衝突升級和對國內政策不連貫的擔憂。
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