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2018為何全球資產大跌?美聯儲緊縮政策、高油價、美國預算赤字

幾乎所有資產都在跌!為什麽2018年如此艱難?
投研公司Gavekal Research負責人Loius-Vincent Gave在最新發布的月度策略中指出,從今年1月的高點算起,所有資產類別都跑輸美元現金。其中MSCI新興市場指數跌了接近20%,MSCI美國指數也跌近5%。

美國諮詢公司Ned Davis Research策略師Ed Clissold指出,這是1972年尼克遜時代以來最難賺錢的時期,“沒有一個資產類別今年有望給到投資者超過5%的回報率。” Ken Griffin執掌的對沖基金Citadel上個月浮虧3%,是2016年一季度以來最慘烈的表現。Izzy Englander的基金Millennium同期虧了2.8%,是其史上第三大虧損記錄。
“兇手”是誰?
Gave認為這要從幾個方面來看。
1)由於美聯儲持續加息、油價年內大部分時間走高、政府支出增加,市場遭遇了典型的流動性緊縮衝擊。
在今年前10個月出現大幅上揚之後,油價近來大幅下行,已經回到去年底的水平。

但Gave認為目前不要對油價走低過於激動:在油價崩盤的同時天然氣價格飆升,意味著這可能和對沖基金倉位(做多原油/做空天然氣)有關,可能是由於被迫平倉引起。如果的確是這樣,那麽油價就沒有繼續走低的理由,而從供需情況來看,當前油價面臨的也是更多是上行風險。

2)美國預算赤字的增加,導致私營部門遭到擠出。
Gave稱,儘管美國稅收收入升至歷史新高,但是2018財年美國預算赤字也在繼續擴張,“史無前例地,我們從未見過在經濟並未陷入衰退但赤字持續擴張的情況。”

野村證券跨資產研究主管Charlie McElligott此前則提到,隨著市場對經濟周期的預期急劇轉向,現在市場上最重要的交易策略是“去風險”模式。
而風險主要來自於杠桿,換句話說,是去杠桿行為加劇了股市下跌。
2019年會好轉麽?
Gave認為未必,這首先在於全球經濟增長前景仍在惡化:
「我們的全球經濟增長指標在11月持續走弱,過去好幾個月都是這種情況。」
歐元區是放緩最嚴重的地方。但即使美國是經濟強勁增長的燈塔,目前也開始走弱。樓市活動放緩,汽車銷售不佳,同時市場還擔心,雖然進口數據表現不錯,但主要原因可能是美國公司在新關稅生效前搶跑。如果的確如此,那麽在內需走弱的情況下,庫存問題很快就會顯現。

從市場情緒來看,Gave此為依然沒有好轉跡象:
「在遭遇慘烈的10月之後,11月風險資產得到一些喘息。在股市方面,MSCI世界指數獲得1%的漲幅,亞洲股市表現更好,漲幅達5%。但是這種表現似乎只是暫時的,因為12月一開始,風險資產再度表現糟糕,而這還是在這些背景下出現的:油價下滑;美聯儲措辭偏鴿。」
這種情況是值得擔憂的,因為如果在利好消息出現的情況下股市不漲,那麽投資者就應該要當心了。

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來源:Gavekal Research