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【新股分析】阿發:寶寶樹(1761)是以MAU計中國最大的母嬰類社區平台

新股:寶寶樹(1761)
公司簡介:
根據沙利文報告,寶寶樹是以MAU計中國最大、最活躍的母嬰類社區平台,致力於連接及服務年輕家庭。在公司平台上,二零一七年有平均1.39 億MAU。根據沙利文報告,中國年輕家庭指處於生小孩前兩年至生小孩後六年階段的家庭,二零一七年中國年輕家庭市場規模達人民幣11.0 萬億元。
公司於二零零七年推出babytree.com ,就是想要為中國的準父母和年輕父母搭建一個相互交流及獲得最佳孕育建議的在線平台。時至今日,公司為年輕家庭建立了一個以強大之社交功能和優質內容為兩大支柱的充滿活力的社區。公司在開發平台上的功能時顧及年輕育齡用戶的溝通需要,專注於社交元素,以培養互動和自發的用戶體驗。公司的用戶積極參與各種形式的社區互動,而互動又會產生大量用戶生成內容(或UGC)。UGC對公司非常有價值,因為其有助於加強公司社區的聯系以及豐富公司的內容。根據沙利文報告,公司在中國線上平台中擁有最全面優質的育兒知識。除UGC外,公司亦維持一個大型且不斷增長的專家生成內容(或PGC)庫。公司亦透過挑選專業或準專業用戶促進原創內容創作,作為補充。
上市時間:27/11/2018
招股日期:15/11/2018 – 20/11/2018
行業:電子商貿及互聯網服務
發售方式:國際配售(90%)+香港發售(10%)
招股價:6.8 - 8.8元
預期市值:113.4 – 146.8億
淨集資額:倘以發售價中位數7.8元計, 售股所得款項淨額約為18.51億港元。40%用作營運及潛在並購。30%用作業務發展及品牌推廣。30%用作產品研發及產能提升。
經調整溢利:2016年、2017年、及2018年上半年溢利分别為4440萬元、1.4億元及1.2億元。
市盈率(預測2018年):41-54倍
主要股東:Wang Family Limited Partnership (22.18%)、Startree (BVI) Limited (21.11%)、淘寶中國控股有限公司 (9.90%)、好未來教育集團 (8.66%)
保薦人:摩根士丹利亞洲有限公司、海通國際資本有限公司、招商證券(香港)有限公司
評論:首先,這是一間內地版的baby kingdom,它是很賺錢的。
很多人誤解這間公司蝕錢,但其實這間公司近三年都在賺錢。造成這種誤解的原因,是因為單看損益表的bottom line(譬如在2017年是蝕9.1億),但這是有問題的。
其實這是一間新經濟公司,在初期集資時會廣泛應用convertible preferred stock,這類權益在入帳時會以負債顯示,但其實毫不影響公司的現金流,而且在上市後會轉換成普通股。簡而言之,convertible preferred stock在初期保障投資者有固定收益,所以屬性近於債券,但在上市後,這些「債主」就會變成「股東」了,而這筆債也是不用還的。所以在分析這間公司時,要看「經調整溢利」,而不是看bottom line,情況類似小米、易鑫和美圖。
解決完這個常見誤解。就要看估值是否合理。約估計今年賺2.4億,招股價的2018PE是在41-54倍之間。不過對互聯網公司而言,更重要的是MAU,去年已經有1.39 億人使用平台,今年還會增長。去年溢利為1.4億,其實就等同賺了每位user 1元。這裡的增長空間其實很大。
而且要注意,定價其實十分合理,比阿里巴巴投的時候還低了10%。集資額也由8-10億美元降至2.18-2.82億美元,減幅為七成。
評級:★★★★☆