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下一次危機會多嚴重?JP Morgan告訴你

下一次危機會有多差?JP Morgan告訴你: 2020年將爆發全球金融危機。
美股將跌約 20%
新興市場股市暴跌 48%,其貨幣跌 14.4%
美國公司債的殖利率溢價將上漲約 115 個基點
能源價格大跌 35%,基礎金屬跌 29%
新興市場國家公債利差擴大 279 個基點
好消息是:下次衰退不會如2008年金融海嘯時般嚴重。
壞消息是:持續時間則難以估計。
上述報告名為「流動性大危機」,JP Morgan指出投資者近年大規模採取被動資產管理策略,追蹤大市整體走勢而非挑選個別股份,降低市場流動性,會令市場在衰退時難以復甦。
在股票資產管理帳戶中,主動管理賬號目前僅占約三分之一,主動的單一姓名交易僅占交易量的 10% 左右。這種轉變消滅了準備在市場混亂時買入低價公共證券的龐大資產池。
簡單來說,太多人用懶人投資法,不做自主交易,所以在下跌時撈底的人大大減少。
下載StockChat,一起討論如何應付:
http://link.StockChat.app/
Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan

Bloomberg指美股還未到頂,但JP Morgan預言2020會有危機