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由零開始學習股票-股價下跌空間真的有限?

〈#由零開始學習股票-股價下跌空間真的有限?〉 難度:★☆☆☆☆ 最近的大跌市,不少朋友問,大藍籌的股價到底可以跌幾深?小編便想起麥哲倫基金經理明星彼得林奇(Peter Lynch)的一段話。股價在升市時可以偏離合理水平極遠,而在跌市中也可以偏離合理水平極遠。 這也解釋了,牛熊證的風險為何極大。手持正股,長線上可以由坐蟹變成賺錢,因為股價終會回歸正常。但是玩牛熊,輸了也無仇報。以下小編就節錄一段林奇的一段故事,跟各位分享。 ---------- 林奇:以下這句話,是關於股價最愚蠢(和最危險)的說法: 「如果股價已經跌深,再下跌的空間也就有限了!」 這是一個好例子。我敢打賭,當寶麗來(Polaroid)的股價從143.5美元一路往下挫,在跌幅達到三分之一時,肯定有很多投資人會這麼說。寶麗來是一家不錯的公司,向來被認為是一支績優股,所以當它的銷售成績重挫,盈餘大幅滑落時,許多人還是沒有注意到它的股價已經過度膨脹的事實。大家還在相互安慰,如果「股價已經跌深,再下跌的空間也就有限了」,或許還會說:「好公司一定會再回來」、「投資股票一定要有耐心」,以及「不能因此就被嚇得賣掉一支好股票」等等。 當寶麗來的股價跌破100美元,然後是90美元、80美元時,這些話想必都曾經在投資人和銀行投資部門間一再出現。等到股價繼續往下跌破75美元時,這群主張「下跌空間有限」的人就會越來越少,而等到股價跌到了50美元,你大概只會聽到部分繼續堅持的股東還在說這樣的話吧。 後來才買進寶麗來的投資人,就是受到「下跌空間有限」說法的迷惑,結果他們大概都後悔了吧。因為後來股價又跌得更慘。這支偉大的股票在不到一年的時間內,從143.5美元一路暴跌到14.125美元,此時才真正是「下跌空間有限」囉。有關「下跌空間有限」的說法,真是讓人受夠了。 沒有任何一個法則可以告訴你股票將會下跌多少,我自己就是在1971年學到這個教訓,當時我在富達公司擔任股票分析師,熱誠有餘但經驗不足。那時凱撒工業公司(Kaiser Industries)的股價已經從25美元跌到13美元,在我的推薦下,富達公司於是在股價繼續跌到11美元時買進了500萬股,這在當時的美國證券交易所(American Stock Exchange)可說是前所未有的大手筆,而我則信心滿滿地認為,股價不可能跌破10美元。 等到股價跌到8美元時,我趕緊打電話給我媽,叫她趕快買進!凱撒工業不可能跌破7.5美元嘛!幸虧我媽沒有聽我胡扯,因為它後來一路跌破了7美元、6美元,最後在1973年跌到了4美元,並證實它不會再下跌,可是這段行情已經把我給嚇壞了。 股票市場竟然把凱撒這等有實力的企業打壓到如此地步,這家公司擁有土地資產,從事鋁、鋼鐵、水泥、造船、玻璃纖維、營造工程和廣播等多種事業,而且還賣吉普車,可是這樣的公司只等於四架飛機的價錢。而且該公司的負債也很少,我們估計,清算公司的全部資產後,每股還價值40美元呢。如果是在今天的話,企業狙擊手早就收購這家公司了。 後來凱撒的股價很快就回升到30美元,可是在它跌到4美元之前,我一直信誓旦旦地說:「下跌空間有限了!」 #哪隻股像當時的寶麗來? #你曾經搏反彈輸大錢嗎?