{"items":["5fda757d560e0100177f0795","5fda757d560e0100177f0796","5fda757d560e0100177f0798"],"styles":{"galleryType":"Columns","groupSize":1,"showArrows":true,"cubeImages":true,"cubeType":"max","cubeRatio":1.7777777777777777,"isVertical":true,"gallerySize":30,"collageAmount":0,"collageDensity":0,"groupTypes":"1","oneRow":false,"imageMargin":5,"galleryMargin":0,"scatter":0,"rotatingScatter":"","chooseBestGroup":true,"smartCrop":false,"hasThumbnails":false,"enableScroll":true,"isGrid":true,"isSlider":false,"isColumns":false,"isSlideshow":false,"cropOnlyFill":false,"fixedColumns":0,"enableInfiniteScroll":true,"isRTL":false,"minItemSize":50,"rotatingGroupTypes":"","rotatingCropRatios":"","columnWidths":"","gallerySliderImageRatio":1.7777777777777777,"numberOfImagesPerRow":3,"numberOfImagesPerCol":1,"groupsPerStrip":0,"borderRadius":0,"boxShadow":0,"gridStyle":0,"mobilePanorama":false,"placeGroupsLtr":true,"viewMode":"preview","thumbnailSpacings":4,"galleryThumbnailsAlignment":"bottom","isMasonry":false,"isAutoSlideshow":false,"slideshowLoop":false,"autoSlideshowInterval":4,"bottomInfoHeight":0,"titlePlacement":["SHOW_ON_THE_RIGHT","SHOW_BELOW"],"galleryTextAlign":"center","scrollSnap":false,"itemClick":"nothing","fullscreen":true,"videoPlay":"hover","scrollAnimation":"NO_EFFECT","slideAnimation":"SCROLL","scrollDirection":0,"scrollDuration":400,"overlayAnimation":"FADE_IN","arrowsPosition":0,"arrowsSize":23,"watermarkOpacity":40,"watermarkSize":40,"useWatermark":true,"watermarkDock":{"top":"auto","left":"auto","right":0,"bottom":0,"transform":"translate3d(0,0,0)"},"loadMoreAmount":"all","defaultShowInfoExpand":1,"allowLinkExpand":true,"expandInfoPosition":0,"allowFullscreenExpand":true,"fullscreenLoop":false,"galleryAlignExpand":"left","addToCartBorderWidth":1,"addToCartButtonText":"","slideshowInfoSize":200,"playButtonForAutoSlideShow":false,"allowSlideshowCounter":false,"hoveringBehaviour":"NEVER_SHOW","thumbnailSize":120,"magicLayoutSeed":1,"imageHoverAnimation":"NO_EFFECT","imagePlacementAnimation":"NO_EFFECT","calculateTextBoxWidthMode":"PERCENT","textBoxHeight":26,"textBoxWidth":200,"textBoxWidthPercent":65,"textImageSpace":10,"textBoxBorderRadius":0,"textBoxBorderWidth":0,"loadMoreButtonText":"","loadMoreButtonBorderWidth":1,"loadMoreButtonBorderRadius":0,"imageInfoType":"ATTACHED_BACKGROUND","itemBorderWidth":0,"itemBorderRadius":0,"itemEnableShadow":false,"itemShadowBlur":20,"itemShadowDirection":135,"itemShadowSize":10,"imageLoadingMode":"BLUR","expandAnimation":"NO_EFFECT","imageQuality":90,"usmToggle":false,"usm_a":0,"usm_r":0,"usm_t":0,"videoSound":false,"videoSpeed":"1","videoLoop":true,"jsonStyleParams":"","gallerySizeType":"px","gallerySizePx":1000,"allowTitle":true,"allowContextMenu":true,"textsHorizontalPadding":-30,"itemBorderColor":{"themeName":"color_12","value":"rgba(197,197,197,0)"},"showVideoPlayButton":true,"galleryLayout":2,"calculateTextBoxHeightMode":"MANUAL","targetItemSize":1000,"selectedLayout":"2|bottom|1|max|true|0|true","layoutsVersion":2,"selectedLayoutV2":2,"isSlideshowFont":true,"externalInfoHeight":26,"externalInfoWidth":0.65},"container":{"width":300,"galleryWidth":305,"galleryHeight":0,"scrollBase":0,"height":null}}
由零開始學習股票-戴維斯雙殺效應

難度:★★☆☆☆ 最近的市況,不禁令小編想起「戴維斯雙殺」(Davis double-killing effect)效應。說的是增長股的盈利表現開始停滯時,帶來的雙重打擊。 首先要明白以下這條簡單的公式: Stock Price = EPS x PE 股價的形成,就是每股盈利(EPS)乘以市盈率(PE)。比如說,一隻股的EPS是2元,PE做10倍,那股價就是20元。 通常對於增長股,市場會預期EPS會高速增長(比如是長期20、30%的年增長),所以不介意做高一些PE,比如慢慢提升至15倍,甚至20倍以上。這時候,增長股就享受了EPS和PE同時增長的好處,股價快速上升,又稱為「雙擊」。不過,當盈利開始出現停滯時,市場感到失望,就會重新評估其估值,下調其PE。這時候不只EPS減少了,PE也減少了,這兩個因素同時令股價下挫,就造成了「雙殺」。 具體案例 這個「雙擊」和「雙殺」的效應,是由美國投資大師戴維斯(Shelby Cullom Davis)提出,其輝煌戰績足以與巴菲特相提並論。1950年,他將10萬美元全部投資於保險股組合。在他1994年去世時,這些投資已變成了8億多美元。 戴維斯的「雙擊」與「雙殺」效應主要體現了企業成長變化與市場不理性預期對股價波動的雙重影響。比如,在牛市時,企業可能獲得估值上升、上市公司業績快速增長所帶來的雙重收益。在熊市中,投資者所面對的往往是估值下滑和上市公司業績增長放緩的雙重壓力。 戴維斯的「雙擊」投資策略很簡單,即以低市盈率(低於10倍PE)買入成長性潛力股(每年增長10%-15%),待成長潛力顯現後,以高市盈率賣出,盡享EPS和PE同時增長的倍乘效益。例如,戴維斯1950年買入保險股時PE只有4倍,10年後保險股的PE已達到15倍至20倍。也就是說,當每股收益為1美元時,戴維斯以4美元的價格買入,當每股收益為8美元時,一大批追隨者猛撲過來,用「8 ×18美元」的價格買入。由此,戴維斯不僅本金增長了36倍,而且在10年等待過程中還獲得了可觀的股息收入。 至於「雙殺」解釋了為何一些強勢股,盈利明明還很高和有增長,但出了一個略差於預期的業績後,股價會出現暴跌。原因是雖然EPS的增長只有少許減速,但由於之前的估值有「太大期望」,所以僅僅是減速,足以產生劇烈震盪。比如說,Facebook最近公佈的第二季度業績略為遜於預期,股價便單日暴跌23%。Facebook第二季度的營業收入為132.3億美元,同比增長42%,較市場預期低1.2億美元、差距約0.9%(一季度同比增長49%,當時較預期高5%)。而且,歐洲用戶至少兩年來首次負增長,北美用戶增長停滯,預料下半年營收將繼續放緩。於是,Facebook僅僅因為營收遜於預期,以及預料營收將會放緩,估值便大幅下調,修正過度樂觀的預期。 所以,好的投資,其實不一定要經常出擊,只要等待到好的時機以好的價格買入好的股票,就能實現完美雙擊,然後耐心持有,坐收上市公司和「市場先生」的雙重饋贈。至於在大牛市的氣氛下持續高追,下行空間其實很大,隨時面對「戴維斯雙殺」帶來的痛擊。