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我曾經以為這樣會發達-除淨日股價必跌?

Steven是個很有創意的人,有次他跟我說,又想到一條炒股formula。我洗耳恭聽。
Steven說:「當公司宣布派股息,股東在除淨日的前一天持有股票,就可以收息。你說對不對?」 「對。」 Steven補充:「然後到除淨日,公司股價就會向下調整。所以貪收息的人在除淨前買入,在除淨後沽出,是無法獲利的。」 「可以這麼說。」 Steven眼前一亮:「哈哈!那麼我在除淨日之前做淡倉,例如買熊證或put輪,就可以大賺特賺了!因為除淨日股價會跌,咁我隻熊證就實升啦!」
今次Steven能夠發達嗎?
#除淨日股價會跌 #個個財經媒體都係咁講 #咁係咪要做淡倉? #廿四小時後開估
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答案: Steven贏不到錢。因為在公司宣布派發股息時,輪證的價格就已經立刻反映股息之因素。所以,即使投資者買入認沽證/熊證,並不會因為正股除淨而獲利。
而且,發行商在發行輪證時,已經將正股預期派發之股息計算在內。倘若正股派發的股息與預期相若,輪證的價格並未會有太大影響。若然正股派發的股息較預期為高,在除淨當日,正股的跌幅度會多於預期,認購證的價格或會下跌,相反認沽證的價格或會上升。
最後,除淨日股價必跌,也只是在理論價值此如此。股票價格還受制於市場因素。很多時股票在除淨當天會不跌反升。