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我曾經以為這樣會發達-RSI超賣即開牛證,超買即開熊證

Steven的屢敗屢戰令我佩服。他說每次失敗雖然輸了錢,但贏了經驗。他相信有一天,自己可以像偶像李佛摩一樣,成為短線之神。
Steven上次炒輸窩輪的經驗,令他明白原來窩輪很多時不跟正股行。不過,有一種產品的升跌跟實正股,叫牛熊證。用牛熊證可以倍大波幅,但有被收回的風險。
Steven相信,他必須盡地一搏,一鋪賺回損失了的金錢,所以他每次趁恆指日線跌至超賣區(RSI 30)時,即開一隻距離收回價500點的貼價牛證。趁升至超買區(RSI 70)時,即開貼價熊證。Steven相信他今次買入的理由很solid,因為每次指數在升穿RSI 70或跌穿30時,都會很快反彈。
今次Steven能一鋪賺回本金嗎?
#留言為Steven打氣 #廿四小時後會短訊提供答案 #你喜歡炒牛熊證嗎?
------------------- 答案:
Steven的熊證被打靶,今鋪輸清光了。運用RSI做逆勢操作十分危險。
RSI升到70便叫超買嗎?為什麼不是80?90?恆指在2015年4月13日曾高見96.5。而且,預期RSI會回落便做淡,是一個嚴重錯誤,的確,RSI穿70有較大機會回落,但RSI回落不等如指數或股價會回落,股價可以橫行,然後RSI回落到一個較低水平然後再升,股價其間根本無跌。尤其是股價突破前阻力的情況,上方沽壓不大,有機會持續試頂。同樣邏輯亦應用在RSI超賣的情況。
運用RSI做順勢操作,就較有參考價值。比如說,RSI升至70,做好倉就不是一個理想切入點。RSI跌至30,這時候做淡倉也不太理想。不過,強勢股的RSI可以一直處於偏高水平,比如在整個2017年大升市,騰訊的RSI就從未跌穿過50,所以如果想等RSI回落至偏低水平才買,就會一直錯過騰訊。所以,最重要的還是個股的基本面是否強勢,能否支持股價,以及市盈率相比預期盈利增長有沒有discount等。
但其實Steven的致命錯誤是重倉牛熊證,牛熊證本身已經有槓桿,還要重倉,就是用幾百%的倉位下注,除非你有幾百%的信心股價會短線合乎預期,但這是股神都無法保證的,上帝或者能保證。
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