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我曾經以為這樣會發達-掂保力加通道底就買,掂通道頂就沽?

Steven多次短炒失利後,決定做足功課。他博覽群書,知道有一種技術分析方法,叫做保力加通道。 Steven說,原來trader經常用保力加通道(Bollinger Bands)做trade,保力加通道由上、中、下軸組成。依照常態分布規則,約有95%的數值會分布在保力加通道內(專業地說,即距離中軸有正負2個standard deviation的範圍內)。 Steven深信,只要一掂通道底就買,一掂通道頂就沽,發達不是難事。今次Steven能發達嗎? #留名後廿四小時後開估 #你喜歡用保力加通道炒股嗎? #今天說點技術分析 ---------------------------------------- 答案: Steven又再輸錢了。 保力加通道是可以擴闊和收窄的。當股價跌破保力加通道,通道會即時擴闊,當股價再跌,通道已經重新收納股價於通道內。所以雖然95%的數值都會分佈在保力加通道內,但這一點是很屈機地實現的。Steven逢底即買逢頂即沽的策略,是完全錯誤的。 通道的擴闊代表一個趨勢(升勢或跌勢)的展開,收窄代表一個趨勢的結束和進入盤整期。所以,保力加通道有用的地方,是用來判斷股價處於趨勢或盤整期。 在趨勢展開的時候(單邊大升或大跌),保力加通道是完全不適用的,價格可以一直沿頂部升上去,或沿底部跌下去,反正會擴闊。 在趨勢結束的時候,保力加通道收窄,上軸見阻力和下軸見支持的有效性較高。 但是關鍵問題在於,你怎樣判斷股價的盤整期有多長?而不只是一個趨勢的短暫停頓?只運用保力加通道無法看出來,因為股價上升的動力來自每股盈利的增加,以及估值的提升。基本面強的股可以破頂再破頂,弱的可以尋底再尋底。